The portfolio’s return in Q1 2026 was -0.78%, which outperformed an all-equity benchmark like the Vanguard FTSE All-World, which had a return of -2.7%.

The long-term objective is to compound capital at approximately 7–8% annualized over a full cycle, while limiting drawdowns to a level that allows disciplined decision-making during periods of stress.

Top contributors / detractors during the month:

• Contributors: Johnson & Johnson, Gold, Deutsche Boerse, Colgate

• Detractors: Global Equities (Vanguard FTSE All-World), Christian Dior SE, Unilever, VISA

Asset Allocation

The portfolio ended the quarter with the following allocation:

• Equities: 68%

• Diversifying Strategies: 28%

• Cash: 3%

Commentary

Overall, I’m quite pleased with the portfolio’s performance. It’s been consistent with my expectations during volatile times. In Q1 interest rates, equities, commodities, and currencies, experienced volatility.

Macro Environment & Winners
A significant portion of the portfolio is invested in USD-denominated equities. The EUR/USD exchange rate fluctuated from a high of 1.20 in February to a low of 1.14 in March. Despite broader market volatility, Gold (priced in EUR) positively contributed to the performance. Within equities, Johnson & Johnson provided stability in the less cyclical healthcare sector, while Colgate served as a reliable staples play. Deutsche Boerse also made a positive impact as the company benefits from heightened market volatility and higher interest rates through its settlement business.

Detractors & Strategic Pivots
One of the major detractors were clearly global equities broadly. Christian Dior showed additional weakness, and I do not anticipate a quick turnaround in the global outlook for luxury stocks. I expect further economic weakness and potential inflation coming from the geopolitical situation in Iran.

Unilever and Visa were also significant detractors. Following the spin-off of its Magnum division in March, Unilever announced its intention to combine its food business with McCormick, while notably retaining its food business in the growing Indian market. Unilever is effectively pivoting toward a pure-play home and personal care business, focusing on higher-growth beauty and wellness markets. Long-term, this strategic shift should enhance focus on core units and potentially re-rate the stock from a forward P/E in the teens to the low twenties.

Visa continued to decline in March amid concerns over slowing consumer spending, the adoption of domestic payment solutions (WERO, Pix), and the future impact of stablecoins. Renowned investor Stanley Druckenmiller recently said in an interview:

“I assume our whole payment systems will be stablecoins in 10 or 15 years, as they are more efficient, faster, and cheaper than existing solutions.”

Despite this, Visa is proactively addressing these shifts, notably by integrating stablecoin settlements. I believe Visa will continue to evolve and embrace technological advancements while maintaining its status as a foundational railway for global spending. I addressed a few issues regarding Visa in the February Update:

Uncorrelated Strategies
The uncorrelated strategies basket performed well, adding 0.8 percentage points to the overall portfolio performance. Major contributors included Gold, BH Macro, and the catastrophe bond fund (insurance risk). Looking ahead, I expect BH Macro to benefit from ongoing volatility. The cat bond fund may provide a more mixed picture, balancing potentially lower short-term rates with a reduced risk premium. I also expect the two quant funds (GAIA and AQR) to positively contribute finally as the year progresses.

Buys & Sells

• Visa: Increased the position in February and I will likely add further on weakness.

• Blue Balance Global Opportunities Fund: Exited as it was only a minor 1% position. I will reallocate these funds to either AQR or BH Macro to increase portfolio concentration.

• Twelve Capital Cat Bond Fund: Trimmed the position to bring the insurance risk allocation back below the 10% threshold. I still believe this asset class offers attractive risk-adjusted returns, and these funds will be redeployed into better opportunities in the coming weeks.

Thank you for reading along, I am looking forward to the next update.

This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The portfolio returned 3.71% in February 2026. YTD the portfolio is up 4.40% outperforming even an all-equity benchmark like the Vanguard FTSE All-World.

The long-term objective is to compound capital at approximately 7–8% annualized over a full cycle, while limiting drawdowns to a level that allows disciplined decision-making during periods of stress.

Top contributors / detractors during the month:

• Contributors: Nestlé, Global Equities (Vanguard FTSE All-World), Berkshire Hathaway

• Detractors: Visa, Magnum Ice Cream Co, RIT Capital Partners

Asset Allocation

Commentary

The portfolio ended the month with an allocation of 68% equities and 32% diversifying strategies.

I could make it short here and just say that January’s top detractors became February’s top contributors. The portfolio performed very well across all segments with only 4 positions being down during February. The substantial exposure to the consumer staples sector (>12%), and the 7% allocation to Gold provided the intended diversification against global equity indices. Especially as technology-related sectors were impacted by fears of disruption through AI. The chart below shows the portfolio compared to an all-equity benchmark.

While I am happy about the performance in February, I am well aware that the high exposure to the staples sector will become a drag once technology-related sectors recover or initiate a new bull market.

JNJ Update
Johnson & Johnson published its 2025 Annual Report this month, with a few positive pipeline news. The company announced a $1 billion investment to expand its cell therapy manufacturing footprint in Pennsylvania, aiming to scale its oncology portfolio. JNJ secured a notable FDA approval for Rybrevant Faspro and published landmark clinical data for its multiple myeloma treatments. The company is trying to move further into complex biologics with these developments. And as exciting as this might be, I also think about the company’s intention to separate the orthopedics business within the next 2 years. I really liked JNJ exactly for this boring part of the whole product portfolio. Interestingly, recent reports from mid-February suggest JNJ might be pivoting from a spin-off to an outright $20 billion sale of this unit to private equity. I will monitor the situation closely.

Portfolio Changes & Visa Deep Dive

I doubled the position in Visa this month. Visa is currently trading at metrics that remind me of previous lows. A P/E at 29, the EV/EBITDA at 21 and the FCF yield is at almost 4%. Markets are pricing in a mixture of headwinds and future disruption fears for the company. This includes lower credit card issuance in the US due to tightening consumer credit, a rise of stablecoins as alternative payment means or cheap domestic payment solutions like WERO in the EU (influenced by successful examples like PIX in Brazil).

A few thoughts on this topic:

Domestic payment systems such as PIX (Brazil) and WERO (European Union) will likely only replace very low-margin, day-to-day transactions for V and MA. Think of your daily groceries (if at all) or the sandwich at the small deli next to you. Since its launch 2020 PIX has surpassed the combined number of credit and debit transactions in Brazil with a very high adoption rate of roughly 80% of the adult population. PIX or WERO is not about the hotel or flight you are booking or the shopping you’re doing on your holiday abroad. These are the high margin transactions for credit card companies. Coming from abroad you also cannot use these systems anyway. From the consumer perspective these systems are debit systems, there is no cashback, no fraud protection, no bonus points, no miles, no lounge access, no insurance benefits. The incentive to use them is 0, even if the merchant gives you a discount of 0,5 or 1% you may still want to collect those points.

The widespread use of instant payment systems such as PIX, WERO or others will or can hurt Visa and Mastercard, but these transactions are not the main driver of revenues for them.

To mitigate risks arising from stable coins, Visa has integrated USDC on the blockchain directly into operations. With a USDC settlement, banks benefit from faster funds movement over blockchains, seven‑day availability and enhanced operational resilience across weekends and holidays without any change to the consumer card experience. Banks are ready to use it and Visa is simply adapting.

“Visa is expanding stablecoin settlement because our banking partners are not only asking about it - they’re preparing to use it,” said Rubail Birwadker, Global Head of Growth Products and Strategic Partnerships, Visa. “Financial institutions are looking for faster, programmable settlement options that integrate seamlessly with their existing treasury operations. By bringing USDC settlement to the U.S., Visa is delivering a reliable, bank‑ready capability that improves treasury efficiency while maintaining the security, compliance and resiliency standards our network requires.”

Source: Visa

Visa is actively adopting and open to new technologies.

This is what Jack Forestell, VISA Chief Product and Strategy Officer recently said at the Wolfe Fintech Forum:

...I'd say I've been doing this payment technology thing for a really long time, 20+ years, and I will honestly tell you, I have not stared into a bigger growth opportunity than what we have ahead of us in the development of the agentic web. See, agentic web broadly that then will turn into agentic commerce, turn into agentic payments. I haven't seen anything like this since the dawn of e-commerce itself in the late 1990s, early 2000s."

Over time we will see if either Visa (and me) are wrong or the market.

In the Diversifying Strategies segment, my investment in the Schroder GAIA Oaktree Credit Fund was converted into the Oaktree Global Credit Selection Fund (1.8% weight). The new fund has a similar risk profile to the one previously distributed by Schroder. GAIA Oaktree was a multi strategy credit fund, specializing in allocating capital across various segments of the credit spectrum, including high-yield bonds, structured credit (such as real estate debt), convertibles, and emerging market debt. The other credit fund in the portfolio is the MAN GLG Global Investment Grade Bond Fund. Is has a similar risk and return profile like the old GAIA fund and the new Oaktree product. All of these credit funds are correlated to high yield corporate bonds as visible below, although they have higher returns (and higher volatility).

Instead of keeping two separate positions I may consolidate the credit risk in the portfolio into only one of the funds for simplification purposes.

Another position I may change is the BlueBalance Global Opportunities Fund, which is a boutique macro hedge fund from Austria. The position is only 1% of the portfolio and therefore too small to really have an impact, so I am considering to sell it and buy some more of the Brevan Howard feeder fund (BH Macro). BH Macro is listed in London as a closed-end investment fund. It provides access to the Brevan Howard Master fund and invests primarily in global macro themes with trading strategies across asset classes like fixed income, forex. Returns are somewhat uncorrelated to global equity markets and especially during downturns BH Macro generally shines.

Thank you for reading along.

This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The portfolio returned 0.7% in January 2026. The long-term objective is to compound capital at approximately 7–8% annualized over a full cycle, while limiting drawdowns to a level that allows disciplined decision-making during periods of stress.

Top contributors / detractors during the month:

• Contributors: Gold, Global Equities (Vanguard FTSE All-World), Colgate-Palmolive

• Detractors: Berkshire Hathaway, Christian Dior, Nestlé

Asset Allocation

Commentary

The portfolio ended the month with an allocation of 68% equities and 32% diversifying strategies. Two new positions were added in January.

AQR Apex Fund
A position in the AQR Apex UCITS Fund, managed by AQR Capital Management, was established. Apex is AQR’s multi-strategy vehicle combining different return streams such as global macro, equity long/short or corporate arbitrage. The strategy seeks to deliver equity-like returns over the long term with a low correlation to traditional markets. Historically, Apex has performed quite well cross various environments. In EUR the strategy delivered a CAGR of 9.43% since November 2018 which is roughly 2% lower than global equity indices. Over the last 5 years, the strategy has outperformed global equity indices.

The strategy is certainly not one with the lowest volatility, but I am satisfied with the expected returns and believe it is a great diversifier for the portfolio. The position may be increased over time. Within the hedge fund allocation, it represents my highest conviction position.

Deutsche Boerse
A position was also initiated in Deutsche Boerse AG. This is arguably the most vertically integrated European market infrastructure provider. The group combines trading venues, clearing, custody, fund services, data, and investment software within a single ecosystem:

• Investment Management Solutions (IMS)

  Deutsche Boerse provides mission-critical front-to-back software (SimCorp), portfolio analytics (Axioma), ESG research and governance services (ISS), and index products including the STOXX and DAX families.

• Trading & Clearing

  Operates key platforms such as Eurex (financial derivatives), EEX (energy and commodities), 360T (FX trading), and Xetra (cash equities and ETFs).

• Clearstream

  Provides custody, settlement, collateral management, and fund processing services globally. A potential acquisition of Allfunds will further strengthen its position in fund distribution and deepen its integration.

My investment case rests on three main pillars:

• The growing strategic importance of financial market infrastructure and (good) data.

• Increasing European policy focus on capital market development and pension reforms. Both, German chancellor Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen, have recently highlighted the importance in speeches. I see Deutsche Boerse as the main beneficiary as it is the most integrated player in this field in Europe.

• A gradual shift toward higher recurring revenue through data, software, and services.

Positioning
I have certain legacy holdings in the portfolio, accumulated over years, that currently are above the target weight I have in mind. Within the equity sleeve consumer staples exposure is elevated. High-conviction holdings such as Deutsche Boerse and Visa are below my desired strategic weights.

Gold has experienced a strong advance over recent months. Should the position increase its relative weight any further I may consider to trim the exposure and put the money to work elsewhere. My exposure to catastrophe bonds has grown as well over the past years. This particular asset class benefited from higher interest rates, and reduced capital inflows following repricing as fixed income with similar risk and return characteristics became more attractive again. Should interest rates decline again, capital inflows may increase and premiums may compress. The current position size of over 11% exceeds my original intentions, and I am considering a partial reduction (probably in favor of AQR Apex).

Thank you very much for reading. Subscribers will receive further updates and research as the portfolio evolves.

This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

As an investor I always assume I will most likely be wrong all the time. This portfolio is not designed to be exciting. It is designed to survive, and compound, across cycles, regimes, narratives, and despite my own mistakes. It is not designed to achieve a performance of 15% annualized. I do not optimize for quarterly outperformance.

Most retail portfolios depend on a single bull market in stocks. I have built this portfolio to compound across various cycles, inspired by the endowment models of Yale and Harvard, but adapted for individual implementation.

Structure

The portfolio is built around two functional sleeves, as visualized in the charts below:

1. Equity Allocation (≈70–75%)

This is my portfolio part for long-term participation in global growth. The equity portfolio is intentionally conservative. The core consists of global equity exposure through an index fund. I also add individual companies based on my research. Rather than trying to predict the next technological wave, I focus on businesses that benefit from structural demand, high capital returns, and limited risk of disruption. The businesses in the portfolio can be categorized into a few functional categories such as capital allocators or toll booths of economic activity.

2. Diversifying Strategies (≈25–30%)

The purpose of this part is not return maximization, but the reduction of dependence on an equity bull market. It is designed to perform when equities fail, and markets get shaken. The inspiration to invest in alternatives initially came from David Swensen. It then developed through a savvy (finance) community, and was possible due to generous decision by my banks (thank you) to give me access to the funds. I have allocated to specialized vehicles typically reserved for much larger institutional investors. The portfolio consists of e.g. multi-strategy hedge funds, discretionary macro strategies or some long / short funds. Furthermore, I hold insurance risk exposure through cat bonds, I own credit and some gold or other commodities (real assets).

No single strategy works all the time, but together, they provide the resilience necessary to withstand environments where my traditional equity portfolio will struggle.

Principles & Constraints

• I assume equity returns over the next decade will be lower than the last one.

• I assume macro shocks will be more frequent, not less (Maduro just got extracted from Venezuela last night, while I was writing this post).

• I assume I will change my mind slowly and publicly. The portfolio will change, too.

What I Avoid

• Private Equity: I avoid the illiquidity and the extreme performance gap between top-tier managers and the rest. Also I believe access is really limited to the best funds.

• Long-Duration Bonds: I avoid locking in capital for decades at low yields.

• Crypto: I prefer assets with productive cash flows or a multi-century history.

A Final Note

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Full allocations, changes, and commentary are shared in the Monthly Portfolio Letters.