On My Mind
I am currently on holiday with the whole family enjoying some nice sunny weather in Spain while I read headlines that airlines in Europe fear a lack of kerosene in a few weeks already if the supply chain does not return quickly to the pre-war standard. The events over Iran are changing by the minute.
For me personally I have three points that I believe are currently running a bit under the surface:
the number of ships crossing is likely greater than what journalists and analysts are estimating by using AIS data
if the issue over the strait does not resolve itself within the next 3-4 weeks I believe we will face shortages in a lot of supply chains from kerosene over plastics, lubricants, and many other goods
we are used to a world where the scarcity of goods usually ends up in inflation. We are not used to a world where we cannot physically access any goods because they are simply not being produced. This is something different and it is a situation that cannot be solved by throwing money at it. Neither by the consumer nor by the government with interest rates, quantitative easing or stimulus checks.
Worth Noting
If there is anything worth reading it is the quarterly letter of Graham Rhodes founder of Longriver Investment Partners based out of Hong Kong.
The Q1 letter is about Hong Kong’s ongoing economic transformation which is influenced by more integration with Chinese capital markets and demographic shifts. Graham evaluates the potential of Futu, highlighting effects of a global expansion and the transformation from a simple brokerage into a financial platform.
Thank you for reading along.