On My Mind
Donald Trump has picked Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the next Fed Chair. He is paving the way to eventually replace Jerome Powell.
The debate about whether Warsh is a dove or a hawk feels secondary to me. The Fed Chair does not set policy alone, the FOMC does that. What will matter far more is communication and signals. I expect markets to focus very much on initial messaging, interviews, public appearances rather than now drawing conclusions from the past. We may or may not see some surprises here. Rate cuts are far from assured.
One Asset
Gold and silver experienced heightened volatility this week. Gold remains part of the Tiny Family Office portfolio.
I briefly considered trimming exposure, but the recent move never turned into a true vertical one and ultimately reversed on Friday. From a strategic allocation perspective, gold continues to serve its purpose: a hedge against fiscal dominance, geopolitical risk, and currency debasement. I see no reason to change the long-term allocation.
Worth Noting
Podcast: Odd Lots - What It Takes to Build One of the World’s Biggest Banks
A great discussion on PNC’s strategic direction, technology investments, and the impact of AI on cost structures and product offerings (which may actually be smaller than we think). CEOs are generally quite good salesmen but Bill Demchak of PNC seems exceptionally likeable. Worth monitoring as an investment case.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the next week!