From The Desk - Week of December 01 2025
Michael Burry is back, Nordea Research, and a few personal thoughts
This week I read around the same question I raised in my recent Thematic Report on government debt, ageing societies, and the (potential) end of cheap capital:
Are we entering a structurally different interest-rate regime?
Nordea published a compelling piece that fits perfectly into this theme. You can find it here, and I recommend to read it. Their conclusion is blunt:
Borrowing needs in both the US and Europe are increasing materially at the same time as demographic trends reduce the global pool of savings. The US’s status as a safe-haven issuer is not guaranteed indefinitely, with interest expenses now exceeding defence spending and projected to rise further. The only short-term relief available – aggressive Fed rate cuts – risks undermining inflation credibility and may instead push long-term yields higher if market participants fear the Fed’s independence is weakening. In short, long-term rates may well rise even as policy rates fall, suggesting the era of persistently low long-term yields is behind us.
Michael Burry’s new Substack: a refreshing voice
Another thing I enjoyed this week: Michael Burry launched his Substack, and I immediately subscribed to the paid version.
I genuinely think he is misunderstood. He is not the perma-bear the media paints him to be. He is a cautious, Graham-minded value investor. His writing mixes anecdotes, history, and honesty in a way that is rare. He has no agenda beyond sharing his thinking.
I’m glad he’s writing publicly again, and look forward to reading.
Owen Lamont’s excellent note on a possible AI bubble
Owen Lamont from Acadian Asset Management published a short, readable piece asking: Are U.S. equities in an AI bubble?
His answer:
Probably not — at least not by the most reliable indicator: equity issuance.
Lamont’s argument revolves around one concept:
If executives believed prices were truly excessive, they would be issuing stock — not buying it back.
But this is what he sees instead:
U.S. corporates have repurchased ~1 trillion USD over the past year.
Scaled net issuance (12-month) is –0.9%, extremely normal.
Historically, every major bubble was accompanied by massive issuance:
The South Sea Bubble (1720)
British Bicycle Mania (1890s)
The 1929 bubble
Japan in the late 1980s
The dot-com bubble (400+ IPOs in 1999; issuance peaking March 2000)
During bubbles, the “smart money” (firms) sells to the “dumb money” (optimists).
“The Third Horseman of the Bubble Apocalypse — equity issuance — is nowhere to be seen.”
My opinion is:
We definitely may have speculative pockets (AI infrastructure, cross-investing among Oracle, Nvidia, OpenAI, etc.), but the market as a whole does not reflect classic bubble dynamics. I expect equity returns to be lower in the future than they were over the last 10 years which is also reflected in my personal portfolio structure at The Tiny Family Office. I will publish more on that soon.
Closing Thoughts
This week I also published my first Thematic Report on Emerging Markets, rising consumer masses, and global FMCG. This is a theme I personally invest in. Not only because I like the sector and the predictability of cash flows, but also because it is unloved at the moment.
Other than that, I wish you all a great Thanksgiving.
Enjoy the time with your families and loved ones. And stop thinking about markets for a few days.